Monitoring and evaluation
This is the first annual monitoring report for the Wellington Region Land Transport Plan 2021 (RLTP).
The monitoring framework consists of the 3 headline targets which are the main performance indicators. Together with the measures and indicators in the framework, these will track our progress toward the regional programme objectives and outcomes.
The monitoring framework consists of eleven measures and 19 indicators for the Wellington region. The main performance indicators are the headline targets, they are ambitious and indicate the scale of change we want to make in the ten years to 2030.
The headline targets are:
- Increase public transport and active mode share by 40 percent
- Reduce transport-generated emissions by 35 percent
- Reduce road deaths and serious injuries by 40 percent
The RLTP objectives and outcomes
Objective: 'A high quality, reliable public transport network'
Target: Annual public transport boardings per capita increases to at least 76 boardings
Annual public transport boardings per capita and RLTP target (orange marker)
Source: Metlink, GW
The figure above presents the annual number of public transport trips per capita taken by train, bus and ferry. It is calculated using annual public transport patronage and regional population.
In 2019/2020, because of the impact of COVID-19 on patronage we have estimated an annual result based on the boardings for eight months to February 2020. The estimated annual result is 73.5 public boardings per capita which represents an overall improvement in the last five years (according to the black dotted line which is the five year trend).
The red dotted line illustrates the gradual progression to the RLTP target of 76 boardings per capita by 2025.
Target: Public transport mode share of journey to work trips increases to at least 17.8%
Public transport mode share of journeys to work (census data) and RLTP target
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Mode share in public transport trips in 2018 was 19.6%. Travel-to-work mode share for 2013 and 2018 census results for bus increased from 9.5% to 10.2% and for rail from 7.8% to 9.4%. There was a significant growth in commuter rail trips over the five years to 2018 (passenger boardings up by 16% according to the Census).
The mode share result is also above the RLTP target of at least 17.8% mode share by 2025.
Target: Public transport mode share of trips crossing Wellington CBD cordon (AM peak) increases to at least 34.7%
Source: GWRC Wellington CBD cordon survey 2019
The figure above shows the mode share of public transport trips crossing the Wellington City CBD cordon during peak hour. Public transport mode share is calculated using the data from the cordon surveys.
In 2019 the mode share for public transport is 34% which is just below the 2025 RLTP target. Other mode use (data trends) show car use increased and active modes have decreased in 2019.
Public Transport use has increased over the last 10 years, especially in rail, the rail infrastructure improvements have helped to make public transport more reliable and attractive, leading to increased rail patronage.
Note: Due to Covid-19, the 2020 Cordon survey results were unreliable and therefore won't be published. The 2019 survey results are the most recent results available.
Target: Population living within 500m of a core bus service or 1km of a rail station improves towards at least 50%.
Population living within close proximity to core public transport services
Source: Statistics New Zealand, GWRC
In the figure above, 61% of the population in the region live within 500M or 1Km of a core bus stop or railway station. The 2025 RLTP target is achieved in 2019/20 monitoring year, the RLTP target is shown by the orange line.
Population living within close proximity to any public transport services
Source: Statistics New Zealand, GWRC
Population living within 500m of any bus or 1 km of train station
The second accessibility indicator is shown in the figure above. The 2018 census data reveals that 92% of the population are in close proximity to bus and train services. The proportion of the population in close proximity to public transport has improved since 2013, mainly due to the changes to the bus network in 2018.
RLTP Target: Population living within 500m of any bus stop or 1km of a rail station improves towards at least 92%
Other measures of accessibility:
Target: Accessibility to public transport network for all users continuously improves.
A public transport network should be accessible to all users. One key element of accessibility is the provision of information, facilities, infrastructure and services. There are a number of examples of improvements to infrastructure and facilities completed in the last year and for the future, please see section 2.5.
A public transport network should be accessible to all users. The key elements to accessibility are the provision of information, facilities, infrastructure and services. An example of this is the new Metlink website. The website provides timetabling for 100 bus services, 200 school bus services, 4 train lines and the harbour ferry. The website offers a wide range of functionality including real time information on PT services, journey planners and provides delay and service updates to subscribers via text, twitter and email.
There are a number of examples of improvements to infrastructure and facilities for public transport completed in the 2019/20 year, please see the Annual Monitoring report on the RLTP.
Target: Public transport vehicle fleet emissions reduces to at least 50% of 2013 levels
Bus fleet emissions per bus per km and RLTP target (orange marker)
In 2019/20 the average emissions per bus were 11.9 g/km, illustrated by the brown line in the figure above (units on the right handside of figure). The average emissions per bus have dropped significantly compared to previous years. The bus fleet has changed significantly since 2018; 79% of the fleet are now Euro 5 or above including the ten electric vehicles.
The average emissions per bus for 2019/2020 are now below the RLTP target which is 14.8 g/km (shown by the orange marker).
Note: The indicator estimates average CO, HC, NOx and PM10 per bus per year, this emissions indicator does not include CO2. Carbon dioxide monitoring is included under the section 'Reduced harmful emissions from transport'.
Target: Overall satisfaction with Wellington region's public transport system (all modes) increases to at least 90%.
Public transport overall satisfaction (%) and RLTP target.
The RLTP target for this outcome is to achieve at least 90% overall satisfaction with the public transport for the region.
The Metlink annual customer satisfaction survey asks passengers to rate overall satisfaction with the regions public transport network. This covers fleet, facilities, on-time performance and customer service.
In 2020 there was no customer survey, due to COVID-19. In 2019, the Metlink survey found that 69% of customers were generally satisfied with the public transport service, this is a 16 percentage point drop compared to 2018. The RLTP target for this outcome is to achieve at least 90% overall satisfaction with the public transport for the region.
Target: Peak period public transport travel times on core routes continuously improves
Peak average bus travel times on core routes and RLTP target progression line to 2025 (for am and pm).
This figure shows results for bus travel time on core routes during peak AM and PM hours. Since 2014 this data collection has used electronic data and is a substantial change to reporting from previous years. Early indications show a downward trend in AM or PM peak travel times over the past five years. The RLTP target is for a reduction in travel times to 2025.
Target: Peak period bus travel time variability along core routes continuously improves
Peak average bus travel time variability on core routes and RLTP target.
As above the reporting of this indicator has changed. This figure examines average lateness to represent variability of bus times on core routes. Five year trend show some upward trend in variability in morning peak and the afternoon peak toward the RLTP target.
Target: Rail service punctuality (trains arriving at final destination within 5 minutes of scheduled arrival time) increases to at least 96%
Percentage of rail services arriving or departing on time (2016-2020).
In 2016 the methodology for measuring rail service punctuality was broadened to include all key stations, previously it was just Wellington railway station. In 2019/20 rail service punctuality is 89%. The RLTP target remains the same: at least 96% rail service punctuality. Under the previous methodology the RLTP target of 96% punctuality was reached in 2017.
Objective: 'A reliable and effective strategic road network'
Target: Average peak period travel speed on selected strategic routes increases by 10% from the 2014 average
Average peak time travel speeds on strategic routes
The RLTP target is to reduce severe congestion on strategic roads and the 2025 outcome is an increase in average speed of 10%.
Unfortunately this monitoring series has been discontinued so there is no annual data for 2019/20. The average monthly travel speed for vehicles on each route is shown in the table below. The overall average speed for AM inbound and PM outbound traffic is 35 and 39 kph respectively for 2017-2019.
Target: Average peak period travel speed variability on selected strategic routes reduces by 25% from the 2012-2014 average.
The figure below shows the average travel predictability over the period 2014-2019 for six strategic routes using a three year rolling average. Several changes have been made to the way travel time traffic speed is monitored. Travel speed variability is now defined as predictability.
In 2019 there was 63% inbound AM peak predictability and 64% outbound PM predictability. Initial findings show that traffic congestion is not improving
The vehicle travel data is collected using GPS data from commercial vehicles during March each year.
Travel predictability on 6 key routes at peak times for inbound and outbound traffic
Objective: 'An effective network for the movement of freight'
Target: Average peak period travel speed on selected regional freight routes increases by 10% on the 2014 average
Target: Average peak period travel speed predictability on selected regional freight routes increases by 10% on the 2014 average
The region's freight network consist of roads, rail and port infrastructure. Road and rail are the two primary modes for freight in the region as Wellington is a key gateway for freight travelling between the north and south islands. The figure below shows average travel speed for travel times on the region’s main arterial roads.
Average travel speed on the freight route & 2025 target
Objective: 'A safer system for all users of our regional road network'
Target: Fatal and seriously injured totals are measured on an annual basis against a 5 year rolling average (CAS data), this average reduces to at least 50% of the 2009-2013 average
People fatally or seriously injured on the region's roads and RLTP target.
Source: CAS, NZ Transport Agency
The above figure shows the number of fatal and serious injury casualties for all vehicle types in the Wellington region as reported by the police to NZ Transport Agency via Crash Analysis System (CAS). The figure shows annual results (blue bars) and the five year average (the red line).
The latest crash statistics available are for 2019, the number of people seriously injured on the regions roads during the year was 186. This indicator is reported as a five year average, which was 208 injuries (for the years 2014 to 2019). In 2019 there were 11 deaths and 175 reported serious injury casualties, this is below the five year average but still high.
The number of deaths and serious injuries has increased by 25% since 2015, in 2015 serious casualties on regional roads were at the lowest level since 2000.
The increase in serious injuries is also evident at a national level with a similar trend toward increased road casualties.
Target: Total casualties on an annual basis against a 5 year rolling average (CAS data) reduces to at least 50% of the 2009-2013 average
Total casualties on the region's roads and RLTP target.
Source: CAS, NZ Transport Agency
The total casualties for 2019 are 1231, this consists of 11 deaths, 175 serious and 1045 minor casualties, the rolling average for the 5 years is 1115 casualties. The five year rolling average trend-line indicates an increase in total casualties. The recent increase in annual road accidents will mean this upward trend will continue. The RLTP target appears unattainable at 540 casualties or below in 2025.
Target: The number of vulnerable road user casualties (cyclists and pedestrians) killed and seriously injured annually against a 5 year rolling average (CAS data). The target is at least a 50% reduction of the 2009-2013 average
The number of cyclists & pedestrians seriously injured on the region's road network (2005-2019) and RLTP target
Source: CAS, NZ Transport Agency
The figure shows the number of pedestrians and cyclists fatally or seriously injured on the region’s roads. This indicator uses a five year rolling average to monitor annual change, the most recent data is for 2014-2019.
For the annual result, 25 cyclists and 27 pedestrians were seriously injured in 2019 with 2 pedestrian fatalities, the total of 54 is just below the five year rolling average of 57 (2015-2019). The rolling average trend-line shows that although serious casualty numbers have fluctuated since 2010, the overall trend shows increasing numbers of casualties. The RLTP target of 28 casualties or below (in 2025) will be difficult to achieve if this trend continues.
Objective: 'An increasingly resilient transport network'
- Improved transport infrastructure resilience to disruption from unplanned events
- A transport network that supports the restoration of access and regional recovery after a major event
- Reduced regional economic risk
Objective: 'A well planned, connected and integrated transport network'
Target: Proportion of the region covered by an adopted regional risk register increases to 100%.
Target: Estimated time to reopen key road connections to and within the region and to key recovery facilities continuously reduces.
Target: Proportion of the region covered by an adopted and comprehensive regional restoration and emergency plan increases to 100%.
A resilient network is one that is designed, developed and maintained to recover quickly from unplanned events. The regions road network is vulnerable to disruption or closure given an extreme event and this is because Wellington’s topography and relatively narrow corridors of development, infrastructure and transport across the region makes it relatively susceptible to disruption from natural hazards events and traffic crashes.
The first resilience measure refers to a regional risk register; the regional risk register was completed at the end of 2016. The register consists of a list of projects and set of maps that describe locations in the regional transport network that are vulnerable to an extreme event. The risk register will be updated as work is completed on these projects.
Planning and investment are needed in preparation of an extreme event to improve the resilience of existing key transport corridors and infrastructure and identify alternative access points. Another measure that addresses the importance of access in an event is the estimated time to reopen key supply lines and road connections to and within the region. The estimated times for access to key Wellington areas are shown the table below.
Estimated access times to Wellington areas
|Wellington CBD||Sea||4-5 days|
|Western Wellington||Barge (via Porirua)||5-7 days|
|Road connection to Porirua and Tawa||3 weeks|
|Road connection to the Wellington CBD area||3 weeks|
|Lower Hutt||Barge||5-7 days|
|Road connection to the Wellington CBD area||8-10 weeks|
|Upper Hutt||Road connection to Lower Hutt||3 days to 2 weeks|
|Kapiti||Road connection to the Upper North Island||1-4 days|
Source: Wellington Lifelines Group/WREMO: Restoring Wellington transport links after a major earthquake-Initial project report, 2013
The estimated access times above were developed using the scenario of a major earthquake following the analysis of transport access into and around Wellington region (metropolitan areas). Major areas in our transport network which are vulnerable to disruption have been identified and long term strategies implemented to reduce this vulnerability.
The table shows the estimated time to set up the alternative access routes so that water, food and material supplies can flow into the region. Barges will initially bring these supplies in and it is estimated this will take up to a week in most areas to obtain access. The region will be isolated by normal road access for at least 120 days. This is due to likely landslips on state highway routes. Access within the region will also be fragmented due to landslips. An update on these access times is expected in the 2016/17 Annual Monitoring report.
Target: Population living within 500m of a bus stop or 1km of a rail station continuously improves towards 88%
Population living within close proximity to any public transport services
Source: Statistics New Zealand, GWRC
Please note: progress towards this target will be updated when the next census is carried out.
Target: Number of secure cycle parking spaces at railway stations increases by 50%
The number of cycle parking spaces at railway stations and RLTP target
The above figure shows the 5 year trend and targets for cycle parking facilities at railway stations. In 2018/19 there were a total of 385 cycle storage spaces available to commuters at railway stations across the region. Cycle storage spaces at railway stations continue to increase across the region as demand grows.
Objective: 'An attractive and safe walking and cycling network'
Target: Proportion of journey to work trips (Census) by walking increases to 13.6%
Source: Statistics New Zealand
General trends for mode share (census):
- Walking mode share for the region was 11.4% in 2018 down slightly from 12.1 % in 2013
- Cycling mode share was 2.7% in 2018 down slightly from 3.1% in 2013
- Walking mode share is generally increasing toward the RLTP target
- Cycling mode share is fluctuating and has only progressed slightly since 2001
Target: Proportion of urban trips (Wellington CBD Cordon Survey) by walking increases to 20.1%.
Pedestrians crossing the CBD cordon (2000-2019) and RLTP target
The latest Wellington Cordon survey data is from 2019. The above figure shows the mode share for pedestrians in the cordon count morning peak. The proportion of pedestrians crossing into the CBD compared to other transport modes (cycling, cars, and public transport) has fluctuated from 16% to 19% since 2001 but the five year trend indicates an overall increase over this period. In 2019, 16.7% of those people crossing the cordon were walking. The 2025 RLTP target is for 20.1% of all trips crossing the Wellington City CBD cordon to be walking trips.
Taking into account both cyclists and pedestrians together, the active mode share of trips crossing the Wellington City CBD cordon in the AM peak between 2011 and 2019 shows a modest increase from 17.6% to 19.4%.
Note: Due to the impact of Covid-19 there are no results for the 2020 Cordon survey.
Target: Proportion of urban trips (Wellington CBD Cordon Survey) by bike increases to 4.6%
Mode share for cyclists crossing the CBD cordon and RLTP target
Source: Wellington CBD cordon survey 2019, WCC
The above figure shows mode share for cyclists crossing the Wellington CBD cordon, in 2019 mode share was 2.7%. The number of cyclists crossing the CBD cordon during the morning peak has changed very little in the last five years, over ten years there has been an 18% increase, the five year trend-line shows a slight downward direction in mode share. The 2025 RLTP target for this measure is 4.6% of trips crossing the cordon are cyclists.
Target: Perceptions of level of service (annual GWRC perceptions survey) increases to service ratings of 95% and 60% for walking and cycling, respectively
Perception of level of service for pedestrians & RLTP target(%)
Source: Transport perceptions survey (TPS) 2019, GWRC.
The above figure shows the percentage of respondents who rated the level of service for pedestrians as good. The rating has decreased in 2019 to 82% from the 2012 high point of 90%. The five year trend line also showing a decline in perceived level of service mainly due to the 2015 result. Upper Hutt respondents rated pedestrian service higher than other TAs at 89% and Poriruas rating was the lowest at 76%.
Perception of level of service for cyclists and RLTP target (%)
Source: Transport perceptions survey 2019, GWRC.
This figure shows the percentage of respondents who rated the level of service for cyclists as good. Compared to 2015, the rating has gone up in 2019 to 52%, this is a significant improvement to 44% achieved in 2015.
Target: Use of active modes in journeys to school at schools participating in the regional school travel plan programme (annual GWRC survey) continuously increases.
School participation in Movin'March
Movin’March is a region-wide initiative that aims to increase active travel to school. Movin’March is an annual month-long campaign delivered in partnership with local councils throughout the Wellington region. It is open to all Year 1-8 primary schools (ages 5-13yrs), and provides a range of competitions, incentives and resources to encourage and celebrate active travel modes to school (walking, biking and scooting).
Waka Kotahi is currently developing a Student Travel Data tool (Te Haerenga o Ngā Tamariki) to capture data around school travel across the country, and will be working with schools to pilot the programme early in 2021.
Objective: 'An efficient and optimised transport system that minimises the impact on the environment'
Target: Transport generated emissions (per capita) reduces to 15% of 2013 levels
Target: Transport generated emissions (absolute) reduces to 10% of 2013 levels
Transport generated CO2 emissions per capita
This figure shows both measures associated with transport generated CO2 emissions. These are CO2 per Kilotonnes (LHS) and CO2 emissions per capita (RHS). CO2 per Kilotonnes (shown as blue bars above) have increased since 2013. The five year trend-line (black line) for emissions per kilotonnes, is trending slightly downward.
Prior to 2020 the level of CO2 emissions was increasing overall since 2014 and rising above the previous peak in 2005 - in 2016. In 2019/20, the CO2 emissions per capita trend-line shows an downward trend largely due to Covid-19.
In 2019/20, CO2 emissions were 1,100 kilotonnes and 2.03 tonnes per capita.
Target: Concentrations of harmful transport generated pollutants reduces from the 2009-2013 average.
NO2 monitoring across the region - five year rolling average
Nitrogen dioxide is a transport generated emissions pollutant which is currently monitored around the region and used to report on emissions harmful to human health. The figure shows the results from Nitrogen dioxide monitoring sites, the level is calculated using a five year average. The data are obtained from the NZTA’s network of air quality monitoring sites which cover state highways and local roads.
The NO2 data is measured using passive samplers at chosen sites in all areas around the region except the Wairarapa. Since 2013 there has been a downward trend in the level of nitrogen dioxide; the 2019 result is 19.9 µg/m-3, overall there has been a 11% reduction in NO2 over this time. NO2 emissions are on track for meeting the RLTP target in future years.
Target: Peak period private vehicle occupancy gradually increases towards 1.45.
Average vehicle occupancy and RLTP target
Source: Wellington CBD cordon survey 2020, WCC
The above figure shows consistent variability in vehicle occupancy for the period 2003 to 2020; with small shifts in occupancy in the last five years. In 2020, vehicle occupancy was 1.36, the 2025 RLTP target is to increase occupancy in motor vehicles to an average of 1.45 people per vehicle.
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